Study your industry’s future

Transcript of Chapter 46

It’s important to study your industry’s future. You don’t want to become the leading producer of buggy whips, floppy disks… or maybe steering wheels someday. Ignoring your future is a bad idea for 3 reasons.

First, foresight wins battles. Many years ago, Prahalad and Hamel explained three levels of competition: 1) competing for industry foresight, 2) competing to build capabilities for that future, and finally 3) competing for market share. Companies that just “show up” in Stage 3 have already lost to prepared competitors. It’s like an untrained bar fighter challenging a judo master.

Second, the future is largely knowable. OK, we never got those nuclear-powered flying cars they promised… but Kevin Kelly argues that when we understand the intrinsic nature of technologies, we can predict the future reasonably well. For example, the dangerous nature of steam power predestined the shift from home cottage industries to factories.

Finally, change can be swift and punishing. Today, barriers to competition look more like invitations to disruption.  Consider disruptors such as Uber… Amazon… Airbnb… and Apple. You want to be the next disrupter… not disruptee.

So keep your eye on trends such as… water scarcity… urbanization…robotics… renewable energy… internet of things… EV’s … energy storage … biotech … AI … 3D printing … nanotech … and autonomous vehicles.

You can download free trends sheets on these and more at www.futurescenes.com. Then use these in your strategic planning… new business development… market exploration… building a future-oriented culture… or other ideas of your own.

The bottom line is you want your entire organization to be thinking a lot about your future.